The Spanish Way of the USA

What is interesting, only the American experts say about the upcoming financial apocalypse. And as if European and Japanese experts got into the mouth of the water. And this can mean only one thing: a dollar will become a victim of the apocalypse. And they say exactly about the apocalypse -

" (D. Rogers). Another important point is that no one discusses the possibility of getting out of the crisis after the bubble bursts, with the help of a new "quantitative easing". That is, printing new trillions of dollars. This means that the bubble has reached such proportions that after it bursts, there will simply be no "softening" - the dollar system will collapse to the ground. And, speaking of the unprecedented scale of the disaster, Rogers probably had in mind just such a sad end - the collapse of the Fed. After all, in the history of the dollar, only this crisis was not. Finally, the appearance at the head of the FRS old lady D. Yellen indicates that this post is already at the mine, which is already counting down to the time of the explosion. Here are the muzhiks and put on this post an old woman - from her what is the demand? It turns out that the crisis of the dollar system is expected in its patrimonial patrimony as well. Accordingly, dealing with the nature of the crisis should first of all be analyzed, than the situation in America differs from the situation in the European Union and Japan. And the first fundamental difference lies in different models of issuing activity. So, the USA is the only country in the world in which financiers print their own money and how much they consider necessary. In all other countries, the authorities have always understood that this option is called a "goat in the garden." The fact that the Fed immediately behaved like a goat in the garden, the US economy, it became clear quite soon - the "black Monday" of 1929, this clearly demonstrated. The authorities came to their senses and hobbled the goat - they restricted his freedom with several bans. The goat was at peace for a while, but in 1944 the Bretton Woods agreement turned two-thirds of the world into a goat for a US goat. True, the goat has long limited the "gold standard" - the obligation to maintain a constant dollar exchange rate with the US gold reserve. But the goat's actions soon enough led to a mismatch of the real purchasing power of the dollar with respect to the declared gold parity. That is why in 1968 De Gaulle exchanged dollar reserves of France for gold. The Fed realized that the shop was closing and tossed the participants of the agreement on the common dollar garden, giving up the "gold standard". The meaning of Kidalov is explained by the phrase of the US Treasury Secretary, who told his Western colleagues that "the dollar is our money and your problems". Because before the abolishment of the "gold standard", the situation was the opposite - the dollar was everyone's money and the US problem. That is why the countries of the West agreed to sign the agreement, and not because the US was the leader of the West. Moreover, in 1944 this leadership still seemed only a possible prospect - then the sun did not go over the British Empire, and not over the Pax Americana.

But by 1971 America had already become the head of the Western countries. So, realizing that after France other American countries would come for American gold, she solved the problem in a traditional way - she threw partners. It is not by chance that the first rule of the American school of management reads: "if there is some opportunity not to pay, you do not have to pay". To the place to notice, in fact, only this American teachers and taught a new Russian business. When none of the signatories even squeaked about the outspoken kidalov with the "gold standard", the goat realized that now he can do whatever he wants. It was after this that the debt pyramids began to pile up. And with the speed of rabbits, the goats began to breed - stock speculators. Any crisis is the process of eliminating a systemic problem. And any system problem is a consequence of non-fulfillment of some of the elements of the system of its function in it. That is, it is the result of the defectiveness of the element and, as a consequence, the ability of the system to reduce its mission. And not the result of an "error". Because "mistakes" are usually committed in someone's interests. Therefore, dealing with any crisis, this is a search for a defective element and determining exactly how it reduces the effectiveness of the system. And it is required to begin with an analysis of the processes of the functioning of the system - to find out what processes ensure its fulfillment of its purpose and which of them acts in a blank or even directly hinders other processes. Then it is required to determine which participant of such a process and how exactly this result is achieved. The purpose of the system of economic activity is the production of goods and the provision of services. At the same time, services only increase the efficiency of productive activities. And not only the production of goods - services are required for all types of activity, without exception. But in all cases, services are ancillary activities. The consequence of the fundamentally different nature of these two types of economic activity is the existence in the economic sphere of a systemic problem - a qualitative division of the effect between representatives of the main and auxiliary activities. First, between entrepreneurs and employees who provide them on an individual basis with labor services. Secondly, between different in the field of entrepreneurs - producing goods and providing services. And as in the first case, there is no warmth in the relationship, and in the second one does not smell of friendship. In economic activity in general and in the described problem, in particular, the key characteristics of the participants' actions are the two - competencies and conscientiousness. Because they determine the quality of economic relations and, as a consequence, their effectiveness. And they are also key to clarifying the causes of the crisis phenomena. Therefore, to understand the reasons for the impending financial crisis of the dollar system, one must begin by determining how competent and conscientious activity of American financiers is. The scale of the imbalances in the financial system demonstrates great problems in terms of competence. Its economic activities are provided by economic science. And today it is clearly inadequate to the current level of complexity of economic activity - it only has a set of myths about the nature of economic activity and its purpose. As a result, she studies economic processes in the same way as before the appearance of meteorology people studied the weather - accumulating and systematizing observations of phenomena without understanding their essence.

This sad state of affairs is most clearly demonstrated by the history of the 1997 Nobel Prize for the Black and Scholes formula. The formula allegedly guaranteed a profit on the hedging operations. That is, it was in its pure form a financial analogue of the "philosophical stone" - it allowed to turn any papers into gold. Just two years later, the Asian financial crisis clearly demonstrated that not only in chemistry, but also in finance, miracles can not be. As a result, this history showed the alchemical level of development of economic science. The most curious in this situation is the fact that economic science does not understand the essence of modern money as an economic phenomenon. She knows only the functions that perform money - goods, measures of value and means of payment. As a primitive man knew the function of fire - fry, warm and shine. But he had no idea that these functions are derived from the property of the oxidation reaction to release energy.

The essence for the economy of any phenomenon is its useful properties for economic activity. In this sense, the main property of money for the economy is their ability to influence the dynamics of economic processes - to accelerate or slow down their flow. And understanding the mechanism for realizing this ability of money allows you to intelligently control the speed of turnover of resources. Money has other properties, which is observed in the form of a set of functions of money, as a means of using these properties. It is for meaningful management of the dynamic characteristics of economic processes that operators need competence and integrity. The importance of competence is obvious. The importance of good faith is due to the social nature of economic relations. And without exception, all social relations are built on ethics and are effective only in the case of good faith of their participants. But since in modern economic science there are no ethical categories at all, economists have no idea about this factor in the effectiveness of money management. During the development of money, the factors of competence and conscientiousness had different meanings. When using money as running goods, neither factor played a role. Because the value was only usefulness of running goods. When using silver and gold coins as money, the situation has changed not too drastically. So dishonesty in the form of pruning of feudal coins was only a situation of "gentleman in search of scores." Of cases of incompetence, the example of the Spanish gold crisis is notable. Then the authorities failed to competently control the flow of gold coming from America, which led the country's economy to decline. The appearance of paper money has significantly increased the role of factors of competence and conscientiousness in the management of monetary circulation. Although paper money was provided by the issuer's assets in the form of gold and silver reserves, but it was difficult to assess their real availability. As a result, the factor of good faith of the issuer began to play an essential role. The requirements for the issuer's competence also significantly increased. What eventually led to the development of economic science. And it is in the form of political economy, in which both factors are studied. In 1971, another stage of the development of money began in the form of liabilities of issuers that did not have material security. And more and more they go to the form of an entry in the accounts - the account of the amounts of liabilities. Accordingly, the money began to have completely information support - the reputation of the issuer. Accordingly, the money began to have a reputational value, the value of which is determined by the issuer's reputation - his competence and conscientiousness. With the Fed's reputation for honesty, it was sad from the start. But the rejection of the "gold standard" finally destroyed the ethical component of the reputation of the dollar. So after 1971, the reputation of the dollar had only one support - the belief in the competence of the Fed. More precisely, in the high quality of the American economic school, performing for the Fed the functions of scientific support of its activities. And the regular rewarding of American economists with Nobel Prizes successfully supported the belief in the competence of the Fed. As a result, she could easily nourish on the world's financial garden. Today, the situation looks like for the Fed, the akhovaya - the current financial crisis will put an end to the belief in the competence of the Fed. As a result, the dollar will completely lose its reputation. As a consequence, should be drastically depreciated - at least 50%. In fact, today the US is repeating the history of the Spanish gold crisis. The only difference is that, using the conquistadors, the Spanish authorities flooded the country with gold. Similarly, using the Fed, the US government flooded the country with free commodity goods. Accordingly, the American economy should repeat the fate of the Spanish - in the end to decline. The most interesting thing in this situation is that the radical new devaluation will completely suit the new command of the White House. First of all, because this is the only way to achieve the goal of re-industrialization stated by D.Trump. It is equally important that this will give the president an excuse to liquidate the Fed - to replace the goat with the classic Central Bank. And ultimately to destroy the American financial elite. And this will deprive the political opposition of the customer of his services. And she will start running to the side of the administration. As a result, D. Trump will completely untie his hands for the cardinal reform of America. But these are all short-term prospects and only the US. And alas, they look like "flowers" in comparison with the medium-term prospects of the entire First World. So the financial crisis will serve to warm up all processes. And this will be a completely different "music".